If you missed any of the previous sections of this 4-part
article, you can find them here:
Hopefully you’ve learned as much about these teams as I
have. Before we dive into the final 8 teams, let’s make sure you have my
Eliminator suggestions, as well as my upset pick of the week. Usually, more
words will go into explaining these individual picks, but I feel the past 10,000
words should suffice:
#5. Detroit Lions
#4. Green Bay Packers
#3. New Orleans Saints
#2. New York Jets (my personal choice, because there will
be plenty of opportunities to choose Pittsburgh later)
Best: Pittsburgh Steelers
Upset pick of the week: St. Louis Rams (+6.5) at New York
Giants.
The home stretch will feature Philadelphia @ St. Louis,
Oakland @ Denver, New England @ Miami, Indianapolis @ Houston, and as always, a
mention of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.
Miami Dolphins
Optimistic about: Chad
Henne.
I was optimistic about Henne before the season began; now
I’m uber-optimistic. In light of Bill Barnwell’s observation on how his career
arc matches that of Drew Brees, I’ve grown accustomed to calling him Drew Brees
Jr. (or DBJ, for short). Take out the lone interception which came on the last
play of a 14 point game and he had 475 yards, 3 TD, and no turnovers against
the Super Bowl favorites. Relying exclusively on the 5 guys who would most
likely be in the game on a Singleback 3 WR formation, DBJ completed 66% of his
passes for over 400 yards. And it’s not as if the next 2 weeks (Houston and
Cleveland) will be any more taxing on their passing game.
Not worried about: Daniel
Thomas.
Reggie Bush had a few good looking runs, but he was
involved in just as many passing plays as rushing plays; and from what we heard
in the pre-season, the Dolphins want Thomas to be their primary ball carrier.
I’m hoping he gets on the field before too long, but I’m not yet concerned that
they’re playing it safe with the banged up rookie, and I’m optimistic that
they’ll be operating in a lot of 2-back sets. However, this IS the franchise
that brought the Wildcat to the NFL, and now that they have one of the greatest
“gadget” guys in the NFL, there’s no telling what they’ll do.
Definitely worried
about: The secondary.
Even against one of the best quarterbacks in the game,
that is a more than slightly alarming amount of passing yards to allow. Of
course, the secondary may have been in better shape if the front 4 had gotten
pressure on Brady on an even remotely regular basis. Depending on which stats
you consider to be indicative of a successful defense, the Dolphins were
anywhere between the 7th and 14th best defense in 2010,
but they absolutely looked like the worst defense in the league on Monday
night.
New England
Patriots
Optimistic about: Danny
Woodhead.
Aside from the Law-Firm’s short TD run on the Pats first
drive of the game, Woodhead doubled Green-Ellis’ production over the course of
the game; and it’s not as if he did it during garbage time, as he was heavily
involved in the ground game from the beginning. In fact, after that first
scoring drive, Green-Ellis was invisible for the rest of the first half, as
Woodhead received the next 8 carries prior to halftime. And the best cause for
Woodhead optimism is that he looked like a crucial cog in the offense without
even being involved in the passing game (1 reception for 6 yards), which was
really his X-Factor-ness last year. Green-Ellis will obviously be the goal line
guy and will still get a strong percentage of the “normal” carries, but I would
guess that, even if both guys stay healthy for all 16 games, Woodhead will
finish the season with 500 more rushing + receiving yards than Green-Ellis.
Not worried about: The
Defense.
The Chad Henne yardage seems a bit out of whack, but the
Patriots have held their opponents to fewer than 20 points per game in each of
the past 5 seasons.
Definitely worried
about: Ochocinco.
One of the guys in my league spent $20 on Ochocinco on
draft day. At the time, I wasn’t sure whether it was a great decision or a horrible
one, but I knew it wasn’t going to be anywhere in between. Eight Five was barely even on the field on
Monday night, let alone benefitting from Brady’s 517 yard passing night. I
think he still has a year or two left in his tank, but I don’t think Belichick
has any interest in forcing him into an offensive scheme that’s been working
just fine without him.
Philadelphia
Eagles
Optimistic about: LeSean
McCoy.
The Eagles didn’t have any true goal line plays on
Sunday, but Ronnie Brown came trotting onto the field on the two occasions that
they had the ball inside the Rams 10 yard line, so I’m still concerned that he
won’t get as many of the Eagles’ rushing touchdowns as he should. That being
said, Shady started the game off with 7 carries for just 10 yards in the first
half and still wound up having a great game despite not being as involved in
the passing game as he normally will be. Aside from Ray Rice, McCoy is the only RB
taken in the first round of most fantasy drafts that you’re not at least a
little bit worried about after opening weekend.
Not worried about: Jeremy
Maclin.
Due to his mystery illness, he got even less training
camp time with Vick than most of the other Eagle receivers, so I’m thinking
that the single-catch day is just a sign of mistiming/miscommunication down the
field as opposed to a sign that Jason Avant is actually going to get more looks
than Maclin.
Definitely worried
about: Vick’s endurance.
I preach about the idiocy of worrying about injury risks
more than anyone, but there’s just no chance that he survives 16 games if he
keeps rushing the ball 11 times per game and taking 11 hits per game. His
ability to get out of the pocket and keep plays alive while still making
accurate throws is what makes him an elite quarterback. His willingness to take
off down the field every time he sees a sliver of light is what makes him a
permanent injury risk. A couple of runs here and there is no big deal, but in
the early going, he’s relying too much on his legs, and it’ll only be a matter
of time before a defense better than the Rams makes him pay for it.
St. Louis Rams
Optimistic about: Brandon
Gibson.
By the start of the 4th quarter, it was
becoming evident that Amendola was Bradford’s #1 target and that Gibson was in
a distant 2nd. By the end of the 4th quarter, Amendola
had suffered an 8-10 week injury, and Gibson became the immediate benefactor of
his yards and targets. I still believe Mike Sims-Walker will play a significant
role in this Rams pass attack, and if Spagnuolo’s word means anything, they’re
committed to getting Greg Salas involved as well. Nevertheless, Gibson should
get the most balls thrown his way for the next two months, with immediate
dividends being paid this Monday against an atrocious Giants secondary.
Not worried about: Sam
Bradford.
He took a lot of abuse against an aggressive and physical
Eagles defense, but I’m neither worried about the finger injury nor the fact
that he’ll bounce right back this week against the Giants. He’s still going to
struggle at times, especially in upcoming games against Baltimore, Green Bay,
and New Orleans, but his opening week mediocre performance doesn’t change the
fact that you’ll want him on your roster in weeks 9-14 when he faces Arizona
(twice), Seattle (twice), San Francisco, and Cleveland.
Definitely worried
about: Steven Jackson.
Not surprisingly, there were an absurd number of Achilles,
calf, and hamstring injuries on opening weekend, but aside from the one Foster
suffered in the pre-season, this is the leg injury causing the most concern in
fantasy circles. He’s always been one of those “if only he could stay healthy”
running backs. Remember in 2006 when he had 2334 rushing + receiving yards and
16 touchdowns? The talent is obviously there, but unfortunately you don’t get
fantasy points for miles on the exercise bike.
Denver Broncos
Optimistic about:
Brandon Lloyd.
I’d be lying if I said I thought in the pre-season that he might have a repeat
of last season in him, but having watched him accrue more targets, receptions,
and yards than any other Bronco, he has my attention. In retrospect, I’m not
entirely sure why I was down on Lloyd; Denver can’t run the ball, their
starting tight end was barely able to make an impact in St. Louis for the past
two seasons, and Eddie Royal has been letting everyone down in extraordinary
fashion for the past two seasons. Without Lloyd, I have no idea what the Broncos
would do.
Not worried about: Losing
to the idiot in your league who picked up Eric Decker.
It inevitably happened: someone in your league picked up
Decker, someone in your league picked up Randall Cobb, and someone in your
league probably picked up Scott Chandler. Trust me, none of these guys is the
next Miles Austin. The best case scenario is that he winds up being a poor
man’s Ed McCaffrey; he’s even wearing his number and everything. While
McCaffrey may have been an inspiration for us white boys around the country, he
only really had one or two notable fantasy football seasons, so do you really
want the impoverished version of 47 catches, 619 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns?
Because those were McCaffrey’s career averages. And Kyle Orton sure ain’t John
Elway.
Definitely worried
about: Knowshon Moreno.
2.8 yards per carry against the 4th worst
rushing defense in 2010. Every now and then, the numbers speak for themselves.
Factor in that he was involved in the same numbers of plays as McGahee (11
carries + targets), and we’re looking at maybe the 35th best running
back in a 32 team league. Further factor in the hamstring injury, and now we’re
looking at a running back who should be owned in about 85% fewer leagues than
he is currently owned in. But if you have him, you paid too much for him and
you can’t afford to drop him, because then you would really feel obligated to
play Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs every week, so good luck with that.
Oakland Raiders
Optimistic about: Marcel
Reece.
I feel like it isn’t all that often that wide receivers
get converted to fullbacks, but considering he was strictly a pass catcher
until the age of 23, Reece has evolved into a solid run blocker who can also
make acrobatic catches out of the backfield. I’m optimistic about his career as a
fullback, but I’m really just writing this section to remind you that he’s a
fullback who averages around 3.5 touches per game, and to let you know that
you’d be borderline mentally challenged to have him on your fantasy roster.
Pardon my vulgar letters, but how the F is this guy owned in 1.4% of leagues?! He’s
owned in more leagues than Darrius Heyward-Bey, Arrelious Benn, Jason Hill,
Javon Ringer, and Isaac Redman; the latter two of which should be owned by at
least 75% of Chris Johnson/Rashard Mendenhall owners. Blows my mind.
Not worried about: Jason
Campbell.
The numbers were pathetic, but he didn’t make any horrible
decisions, he didn’t take any vicious hits, and he’s still working with the
same playbook as last year for the first time since he was 4 years old. You’re
not even considering starting him until bye weeks, but thus far, you shouldn’t
be considering dropping him until after your primary QB’s bye week either.
Definitely worried
about: Jacoby Ford.
It was pretty obvious in the early going that the
Raiders’ game plan was to let Jacoby Ford have his way with the Broncos
tacklers, but after a fumble on the first offensive play of the game and a
hamstring injury shortly thereafter, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s fallen out
of the coaching staff’s good graces, even if he’s able to be back on the field
as early as this Sunday. The silver lining for Ford is that the next best
options in Oakland are Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens, so he should have plenty
of opportunities to prove himself. Unfortunately, hamstring injuries on
speedsters are about as promising as seeing “Dr. James Andrews” in a pitcher’s
injury report. He should have a productive career, but I’m already beginning to
think that his breakout season won’t come until 2012.
Houston Texans
Optimistic about: Jacoby
Jones.
Speaking of breakout seasons! Jacoby Jones has been in
the league for 4+ years, and he has been my fantasy kryptonite in damn near
every one of them. He’s so fast and it’s so obvious to everyone other than Gary
Kubiak that Kevin Walter will never be a sufficient second fiddle to Andre
Johnson. His punt return TD put the finishing touches on a 34 point first half for
the Texans, and he made receptions on all 3 of his targets for 43 yards. Every
time I look at his stats, I feel like Fox Mulder sitting in front of an “I Want
To Believe” poster.
Not worried about: Owen
Daniels.
This game was over before it started, so I’m none too
concerned about the fact that Daniels received just 2 of the 13 balls that
Schaub didn’t throw in Andre Johnson’s direction. Whether it’s Walter or Jones
at the #2 WR slot, I think we all know that Daniels is actually Schaub’s #2
target. Look for his fantasy value to be resurrected this week against a
hapless Dolphins team that allowed Brady to hook up with his tight ends 13
times for 189 yards and 2 TD.
Definitely worried
about: Arian Foster.
As much as I’m frightened by it, this has nothing to do
with the hamstring injury. Ben Tate was a monster on Sunday, and not since
(wait for this one) Double D Domanick Davis from 2003-2005 have the Texans
relied on a running back to get even 40% of the team’s carries in consecutive
seasons. They’ve gone from Davis to Ron Dayne to Wali Lundy to Ahman Green to
Steve Slaton to Ryan Moats to Arian Foster to Ben Tate. Gary Kubiak is a honey
badger when it comes to caring who is in his backfield, and if Foster doesn’t
come back with a vengeance this coming Sunday, he’ll likely become the biggest
not-exactly-injury-related fantasy bust of the season. When I decided in
mid-August to keep Foster for $26 and Mike Tolbert for $2, I was expecting a
solid running back and a bye week fill-in. Looks like it might have worked, but
not exactly how it was scripted.
Indianapolis Colts
Optimistic about: Reggie
Wayne.
The Colts season is going to hell in a hand basket, but
it looks like we’ll still be able to count on Reggie Wayne being a slightly
more aged version of the Reggie Wayne we’ve come to know and love. Kerry
Collins hasn’t exactly been a reliable QB since he left Penn State in 1994, but
he’s still got a respectable arm, and he’s a wily enough veteran to know that
Wayne is by and large his best chance for success on any given passing play. So
long as it isn’t Curtis Painter behind center, take comfort in deploying Wayne
as you normally would.
Not worried about: Dallas
Clark.
When you have a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback, the
debate is always whether he made the receivers or if the receivers made him.
Joe Montana rode Jerry Rice’s coattails to the honor of most overrated
quarterback of all time. Dan Marino racked up the most yards in NFL history
despite never throwing a ball in the direction of a household name. There’s
minimal debate that Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks that my
generation will ever see, but is Dallas Clark still a top 5 tight end with or
without him? I’m in the camp that believes he’s still a premier guy, and also
in the camp that remembers how heavily Collins has relied upon his tight ends
over the course of his career. As is the case with Wayne, so long as there
aren’t any Painter sightings, you’re still starting Clark in all formats.
Definitely worried
about: The Colts.
They’re not going to get blown out of the water every
week, but they’re going to finish 3rd in the AFC South, and that’s
assuming Jacksonville never figures out its QB situation. The offensive line is
full of holes, and not the kind that Joseph Addai could possibly take advantage
of; the defensive line is full of the kind of holes that any running back could
take advantage of; and we’re still not entirely sure if Jim Caldwell is human
or mannequin. It’s no surprise that Manning has a bulging disk in his neck,
because he’s been single-handedly carrying this team since Edgerrin James left
town in 2006. The good news is, if Manning sits out the entire season, there’s
an outside chance the Colts will play their way into the Andrew Luck
Sweepstakes.
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