San Francisco,
Dallas, Pittsburgh, Oakland
17 of the first 30 Super Bowls were won by these 4
franchises. Granted, that has absolutely no impact on their ability to play in
2011, but I thought it was interesting that these teams with pedigrees for
greatness have been the definition of “just above average” this season.
15. San Francisco
49ers (3-1) [vs. TB]
I’m not really sold on the 49ers. They run the ball a
lot, but not very effectively; they’ve allowed the 6th most passing
yards thus far, despite games against Tarvaris Jackson and Andy Dalton; and, of
course, they still have Alex Smith throwing the ball to no one worth
mentioning. Nevertheless, they’re one Tony Romo superhuman performance away
from being 4-0, and their linebackers are capable of completely shutting down
the run game, giving them a better than average chance to beat teams with a
less than average quarterback. Good thing they play 6 games in the NFC West and
another 3 against McCoy, Grossman, and Flacco. I’m rooting for the Niners just
so I don’t have to hear people gripe about the NFC West sending a team with a
losing record to the playoffs again, but even if they got to 10 or 11 wins,
you’ll never see a single digit number next to their name in the power
rankings.
Tampa Bay has a very average defense across the boards,
so you’re playing your regular 49ers in this one: Gore, Davis, and that’s it. I
could probably be talked into the 49ers defense against a Bucs team that hasn’t
exactly lit up the scoreboards this season, but I also think you could probably
do better on the waiver wire; even during a bye week.
14. Dallas Cowboys
(2-2)
Really looking forward to seeing what a healthy-ish Romo
can do against the Patriots secondary in Week 6. These Cowboys have all the
pieces, but just can’t seem to get over the hump. A win against New England
could propel them to a 9 game winning streak, but with Dallas being Dallas,
nothing would surprise me.
What a beautiful disaster this team is. They looked solid
in Week 2 against Seattle, but have been painful to watch in their 3 road
games. They can’t stop the run, they can’t run the ball, and an offensive line
that was already sub-par can’t even stay on the field. Roethlisberger is a
resilient SOB, but he is taking way too many hits. We worry about Vick’s
ability to play an entire season, but Ben is running out of lives faster than
any QB right now. Ward has been invisible, Mendenhall has an injured leg, and
Harrison is going to miss a few weeks with an orbital fracture.
The Steelers bye week cannot come soon enough, but they
have to wait until Week 11 to get it. Every year, the Super Bowl runner-up
falls back to the pack, but we all thought the Steelers would be immune to that
curse this year. It’s beginning to look like we all thought wrong. They’ll
still have an above average record and might even make the playoffs behind a
schedule that still features 3 NFC West teams, the Chiefs, the Jaguars, and 4
battles with Ohio, but these are not the Steelers we’ve grown accustomed to
watching.
From a fantasy perspective, the Steelers square off
against one of the better defenses in the league and an elite running back just
dying to break off a long TD scamper. I think the Titans will keep the
Pittsburgh running backs in check on Sunday. I would feel a lot better about
playing Redman as a flex guy than Mendenhall as a #2 RB. Even before the
hamstring injury, he wasn’t running like the Mendenhall that fantasy owners
know and love. Even if he starts, I wouldn’t rank Mendenhall in my top 20 RB. If
you have other options, take them.
And if you haven’t already resigned to benching Roethlisberger,
it’s about time to re-evaluate your QB options. As previously mentioned in the
Colts section, I’m planning on starting Painter over Roethlisberger this week;
that’s how far he’s fallen. If your league counts sacks and fumbles as negative
points for the QB, Roethlisberger has been even more of a disappointment than
Peyton Manning, because at least we all know better than to keep trying to
start Manning.
As much as Ben has sucked, Wallace has been a valuable
wide receiver, and Antonio Brown has emerged as the definition of a bye week
fill in. He gets a lot of targets and has the speed to score from anywhere so
long as Ben can get the ball away. I wouldn’t want anyone else in this game
though, including the defense.
The Raiders are a better version of the Chicago Bears: a
team with a running back who can do it all…and not much else. Jason Campbell
isn’t terrible, but he’s much more of a game manager than a game changer. The
return of Jacoby Ford should prove interesting, but Denarius Moore and Darrius
Heyward-Bey aren’t striking fear into the hearts of any cornerbacks. The
defense is currently one of the worst in the NFL, but I think that’s to be
expected when you’ve played 75% of your games against the good teams in the AFC
East; as such, I presume they have a fairly average defense. Like I said,
nothing special aside from McFadden. They won’t wind up being one of the best
teams in the AFC, but they won’t be one of the worst either. Not bad for a team
that’s been in rebuilding mode since 2003.
Against the Texans this week, you’re obviously starting
McFadden, and I would be okay rolling with Moore or Ford at my flex spot if I
had either guy. I’d rank Campbell as the 16th best QB option this
week, so I would hope you can do better, but you could certainly do worse. I
wouldn’t start Boss or Heyward-Bey unless you’re completely desperate; both are
also cases of you can probably do better, but you could definitely do worse.
Don’t start the Raiders defense though. Arian Foster should tear them to
pieces.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers (3-1) [@SF]
The Lions and Texans are the Bandwagon Teams Du Jour, but
I think a lot of people have a soft spot in their heart for the Bucs. They’re
just a fun team to watch and root for; and if you’re a regular downloader of
the BS Report, you have the added bonus of making jokes about Jaaaaash
Twinkletoes Freeman. Speaking on behalf of the 15 non-Oakland AFC fan bases, I
feel like a dream NFC Championship game would be Detroit vs. Tampa Bay.
If I may shift gearsssss for a moment and actually talk
about the team, Josh Freeman has quietly become one of the most consistently
good quarterbacks in the NFL. Don’t confuse that with one of the best, because
he’s still got a ways to go to really cement his status in the top ten, but if
you want a guy who’s going to complete 2 out of every 3 passes on his way to
240 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and a few clutch scrambles for first downs, then Josh
Freeman is your guy. With those stats and that big body, he reminds me a lot of
a young Ben Roethlisberger (minus the fact that he isn’t white and presumably
doesn’t rape college girls in Georgia bars). There are quarterbacks who do just
enough to keep you from losing, and then there are quarterbacks who do just
enough to get you a win; and I think Freeman is the latter. Chew on this: if
you could take any current quarterback and put him on a team with an average
receiving corps that’s down by 3 with the ball on their own 20 and 2 minutes left
on the clock, wouldn’t Josh Freeman be the 7th or 8th guy
you would pick? And he’s only in his third year in the league. And he’s got a
favorable match-up with the 49ers secondary this week. If I don’t stop gushing
over him soon, I’m going to wind up moving to LA and getting Clippers season
tickets.
In other news, after 6 terrible quarters to start the
season, LeGarrette Blount is beginning to approach the beast mode that we saw
him in for much of last season. I’m not really fond of him this week against
the 49ers 4th ranked rush D, but if there’s any chance you can still
buy low on him, do it now before it’s too late.
If you’re looking for a “sleeper” WR/Flex pick up for
this week, Preston Parker is the one you want. I started doing my analysis for
these articles on Monday afternoon, and of course the Bucs were playing the
Monday night game against the Colts. I was watching the game at a bar with my
buddy Doug and told him, “you’ve probably never heard of this guy, but I’m
loving Preston Parker next week against the 49ers.” Naturally, he goes out and
makes 5 grabs for 70 yards and a TD, and there’s only one person who can vouch
that I had him pegged as a sleeper before everyone else. Now he leads the Bucs
in receiving yards, and he’s the primary punt/kickoff return guy to boot, so
you never know when he might take one to the house. He’s only owned in 1.8% of
leagues…which is inexplicably less than the number of leagues Mike Goodson is
owned in. Even if you aren’t suffering from bye week syndrome yet, pick Preston
Parker up and stash him for later. Trust me.
At the end of the day, I’d be willing to play just about
any Buccaneer this week if I had to; except for Earnest Graham in a non-PPR
league, simply because he’s their #2 RB against a good rush defense. Freeman
spreads the ball around about as much as Drew Brees does, so none of the
primary receivers are terrible options, but none are great options either. If
you’re swinging for the fences, there’s probably no one on Tampa that you want,
but if you’re trying to make sure you get some production with the possibility
for a pretty good day, there are a lot of safe plays on this team.
#10-#5: AFC
Cluster F*#%
New York Jets,
Tennessee, Buffalo, Baltimore, San Diego, Houston
It just so happens that these next six teams are the
primary contenders for the 5 AFC playoff spots that haven’t already been
reserved by New England. I think most would agree that Buffalo is the most
likely to fall out of contention and that Pittsburgh should still ultimately
supplant Tennessee for the 6th spot, but that’s why they play the
games.
Their Sunday night game against the Ravens was one of the
most painful games I’ve ever watched. By halftime, I was already devoting more
of my viewership to the Phillies/Cardinals game. By the 4th quarter,
I wasn’t even checking in on the football game anymore. After 6 straight months
of watching baseball, I chose to watch more baseball instead of that game
between AFC powerhouses. That’s how brutal it was.
So what exactly separates New York from Pittsburgh? They
were both completely stifled offensively by Baltimore, they both lost in
somewhat convincing fashion to an up-and-coming AFC team (Houston/Oakland),
they both barely narrowly won a Sunday night game they deserved to lose, and
they both blew out a pathetic team in Week 2. Neither team can run the ball,
neither team can stop the run, they both defend the pass exceptionally well,
and they both have massive issues protecting their quarterback.
Nevertheless, I’d rather put my money on the Jets. Their
kicker is considerably more reliable, they’re healthier (read: younger) on
defense, and they just intangibly seem better equipped to grind out wins than
Pittsburgh.
Now that that comparison is finished, let’s circle back
to that whole can’t-run-the-ball thing. As a team, they’re averaging just 71
rushing yards per game. There are 15 individual players with a better average
than that, and 2 of them play for the Texans. At what point do you mix things
up and give Joe McKnight a prolonged shot at the starting job? Because as it
stands, no one in the Jets backfield is even worth owning in fantasy leagues
(except on those weeks where Tomlinson has a field day with receptions, and
yes, I think this week against the Patriots is one of those field days).
Sanchez was starting to put together a respectable season
before that disaster against Baltimore, and against the last ranked Patriots
pass defense, I think the train will get back on the track, and that Holmes and
Keller are the primary benefactors. I still don’t believe in Burress, but he’s
probably at least worthy of a flex play this week. I mean, you do realize the
Patriots are allowing almost 400 passing yards per game, yes? Even if Sanchez
only throws for 250, those receptions and yards have to go to somebody, and
Sanchez seems hell bent on trying to get the ball to Burress.
I wouldn’t recommend starting the Jets defense in this
one, though I’m curious to see who wins the battle between the unstoppable
force and the immovable object. Brady had 574 yards, 6 TD, and 2 INT against
the Jets last year, but you never know.
They’ve still got a few things left to prove before we can
start taking them seriously as a playoff contender, but in terms of yardage,
they’re in the top 25% of the league in pass offense, pass defense, and rush
defense, and one has to assume that Chris Johnson will eventually get them out
of last place in rush offense. I find it difficult to believe that Matt
Hasselbeck is really this much better than Vince Young or Kerry Collins, and I
presume this is the week that their pass game really starts to be impacted by
the loss of Kenny Britt, but you can’t possibly tell me that there are 10 teams
better than the Titans thus far this season unless you’re basing your entire
argument on the fact that their lone loss came against one of the worst teams
in the league; a loss that I chalk up to a new coach, a new QB, and a RB that
had no training camp.
This week, the Titans face off with the #1 pass defense
in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers, so in lieu of more 80 yard passes to
Jared Cook, it’s probably safe to assume that Chris Johnson will get 30+
touches and finally have some 2011 fantasy relevance. As such, CJ2K is the only
Titan I would really want to start this week, but I would also be willing to
give Cook another shot at a TD with the absence of James Harrison. Unless
they’re trailing late in the game (which I don’t think they will be), I doubt
we’ll see Hasselbeck attempt a pass of more than 15 yards. Between heavy
pressure and a weakened linebacker squad, they should be throwing a lot of
screens and slants over the middle.
Yes, they looked less than average last week at
Cincinnati in a game that everyone had pegged as a classic trap game, but I
still find myself wanting to believe in this Bills team. Maybe it’s because the
bar that I go to on Sundays is a Bills fan club (meaning it was usually pretty
empty last season and presumably most seasons before that), but it’s hard not
to be impressed by a team that moves the ball on offense as well as the Bills
did for the first three weeks of the season. Granted, the Chiefs, Raiders, and
Patriots are pretty much the polar opposite of defensive juggernauts, but 38
points per game is nothing to scoff at.
The next few weeks should be a real litmus test for the
Bills. This week, they host the Eagles who, despite playing all 4 of their
games against teams that I have ranked in the bottom 18 of the NFL, have put
together some terrible defensive numbers so far. Opposing backs have been
running through their front seven better than a Taco Bell value meal through a
small intestine. Hopefully you’ll think about that visual while Jackson and
Spiller squirt their way to a combined 150 rushing yards. And if you’re in a
PPR league, the Eagles have been a little susceptible to pass catching running
backs, so I suspect Jackson will put up feature back caliber numbers, and that
Spiller should more than suffice as a flex guy.
I’d be nervous about starting anyone solely in the receiving
game, though. Stevie Johnson is a safe bet for a few points, but between Nelson
and Jones, it’s tough to even say who the #2 fantasy WR is on this team, and
not in a Jordy Nelson vs. Donald Driver sort of way in which you can probably
get away with starting either. Between the two, I’d absolutely still be taking
David Nelson, but I’m worried that Jones is taking too many of his targets, and
I’m worried that this isn’t a favorable matchup for wide receivers anyway. And
despite leading the team in touchdowns, TE Scott Chandler’s production has
predictably tapered off for each of the past 3 weeks. I know the Eagles
linebackers are terrible pass defenders, but it’s difficult for me to recommend
buying stock in a guy who only gets 3.5 targets per game.
I’m up in the air on Fitzpatrick in this one. He’s been a
top 10 guy so far and will probably be right around there again this week, but
there are a lot of other guys I’d rather start in any given week. Rodgers, Brady,
Brees, Rivers, Newton, Vick, and Stafford for sure, and based on Week 5
matchups, I’d rather have Freeman, Matt Ryan, Schaub, and maybe even Kolb or
Sanchez. There’s no way the Eagles secondary stays as bad as it’s been, and I
have a pretty strong gut feeling that this is the week they start to turn the
corner, or the page, or whatever the kids are turning these days.
7. Baltimore Ravens
(3-1)
They have a bye this week, but Joe Flacco is going to
drive me clinically insane by the end of the season. There’s a good chance he’ll
oscillate between looking like Tom Brady and Ryan Leaf every single week this
season. He looked great in Weeks 1 and 3 and was just beyond terrible in Weeks
2 and 4. Forecasting the rest of the season, he has a favorable matchup in
weeks 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, and 16, and unfavorable matchups in weeks 7, 9, 11, 13,
15, and 17. I can’t wait to look at a bar graph of his weekly fantasy production
at the end of the season.
Only once in the past 8 years have the Chargers started
the season 3-1, and they finished that 2006 campaign with a 14-2 record. They
honestly haven’t looked good at all yet this season, but I’m ranking them here
because we all know they’re better than they’ve been playing. Gates hasn’t
played since Week 1, and Philip Rivers, who entered the season with a 2.35 TD/INT
ratio in his career, has 5 TD and 6 INT to date. And even with the
statistically slow start, it’s not as if anyone thinks they’ll have any
difficulty winning the AFC West. [Gambling Sidebar: The Chargers are -1000 to
win their division, as opposed to the 49ers who have a 2 game lead in the NFC
West, but only -250 odds to hold on to it. While we’re on the subject, if you
like the idea of betting against certain teams, division bets is the way to go.
For example, if you feel really strongly that the NFC South is a 2 horse race
between New Orleans and Tampa Bay and you’re not sure who will win, but you
know it won’t be Atlanta, then bet $225 on New Orleans at -225 and $65 on Tampa
Bay at +400 and you’ll win $35 regardless of whether New Orleans or Tampa Bay
wins the division. Just try to ignore the fact that you would lose $290 if
Atlanta won.]
A definite bright spot for the Chargers has been their
running backs. Ryke Mathbert has amassed 369 rushing yards and 44 receptions
for an additional 460 receiving yards. Those 829 all-purpose yards are better
than any other backfield tandem in the league, including the 3 headed attack in
New Orleans.
Unfortunately, you can’t play SD RB as a fantasy option
(a concept which definitely needs to be embraced sooner than later), so you
have to choose between the two. Since Tolbert’s amazing game 1 performance for
a lot of fantasy benches and waiver wires, Mathews has clearly been the feature
back, and he’s the one you want in your starting roster for the rest of the
season (so long as he stays healthy). Tolbert is definitely worthy of a roster
spot and bye week consideration because he’s still going to get at least 10
opportunities per game, including a few on the goal line, but he’s certainly not
the must-start guy he appeared to be in Week 1. Denver’s rush defense has
improved considerably from last season, but I think Mathews is still a top 10
option this week, and I’d feel much more comfortable starting Tolbert than
McGahee or Lynch.
Regarding the passing game, the touchdowns haven’t quite
shown up yet for Rivers, but he’s still averaging better than 300 yards per
game, and the Broncos have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. It wouldn’t
surprise me in the least if Rivers ended up being the #1 fantasy QB in Week 5.
Not only are you starting him, but you’re starting Vincent Jackson, Malcom
Floyd, and Randy McMichael; and drinking heavily during the game if one of your
three teams is 0-4 because you wasted an early round draft pick on Gates and
followed it up with making Roethlisberger your starting QB and Pierre Garcon
your #2 WR. Now I understand why we watch games at the bar. This was the first
year I ever wasted my time in trying to get an elite tight end, and even though
it was in the league I care least about (i.e. paid the least to join) I assure
you it will be the last time I do it. Considering Gates and Clark have a
combined 36.8 points in my 0.5 PPR league, which is almost exactly half the
total of Gronkowski or Graham, I suspect we’ll see a lot of draft strategies
consisting of no Tight End, Defense, or Kicker until the final three rounds
next August.
I have no idea what to expect out of the Texans without
Andre Johnson. Depending on which school of logic you subscribe to, either Owen
Daniels will be a monster for the next 3 weeks, Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter
will combine to average significantly more than 3 receptions per week, or their
pass attack will completely fall apart. Either way, it’s a good thing Arian
Foster seems to be back to full strength, because he and Darren McFadden should
combine to get at least 65 touches this week in a battle of mutually putrid
rush defenses.
Even without Johnson, I’d feel comfortable starting
Schaub. The home run threat is gone, but he’ll still have reliable receivers in
Daniels, Foster, Casey, Walter, and Jones (if he plays), even though I
certainly wouldn’t want to start any of those guys aside from Daniels and
Foster. Conventional wisdom says the Raiders will try to make Schaub beat them,
which will likely be a fatal mistake.
[Gambling Sidebar: If you’re under the assumption the
Texans pass game falls apart without Andre Johnson, might I interest you in the
Tennessee Titans at +400 to win the AFC South? Should the Texans lose this week
to the Raiders, they’d still have at least another 2 Johnson-less weeks @
Baltimore and @ Tennessee. There’s a good chance they’ll be 3-4 and still
waiting on an actual return date from their star wide receiver. Meanwhile, the
Titans have nothing but winnable games between now and Week 12, and have
already proven they’re capable of winning without their star wide receiver. I’m
certainly not suggesting they’ll win all of them, but 7-3 isn’t out of the
question.]
#4-#1: The Favorites
New Orleans, New England,
Detroit, Green Bay
Barring catastrophic injury bugs, the rest of the regular
season is just a formality before these four teams compete in the playoffs. And
if these teams aren’t indisputable evidence that you can win in the NFL with a
good QB and nothing much in the backfield, then I don’t know what is.
The only negative thing about the Saints is that all that
offense only amounts to 3 guys worth starting in fantasy leagues on a weekly
basis; and even Sproles isn’t a great option unless you’re in a PPR league. At
454 yards and 31.8 points per game, you would think they’d at least have a
must-start WR. But they don’t. Because Brees has 7 guys that he’s already
targeted at least 12 times through 4 games. That Shanahan-ish distribution has
resulted in sub-par WR totals, but amazing TE numbers. In the pre-season, I
projected Jimmy Graham to be a top 5 TE and have 70 receptions for 700 yards
and 7 TD. He’s already 43% of the way to those totals, and, along with Drew Brees,
is an absolute must-start in any given week.
In this week’s affair with the 31st ranked
Panthers rush defense, Sproles is easily a top 20 RB, and if he’s ever going to
amount to anything in the NFL (debatable), Ingram is probably worthy of a #2 RB
or Flex play this week as well.
The Panthers’ pass defense is ranked 6th in
terms of yardage, but don’t be fooled. They faced Kevin Kolb in his first game
as a Cardinal, the Jaguars in a monsoon, and Jay Cutler: they ain’t holding
Drew Brees to 203 passing yards. If you have Colston, Meachem, Moore, or
Henderson, at least one of them is going to have a big day, and they should all
at least be suitable enough for bye week consideration, so I can’t fault you
for playing any of them. I’d personally try to find a better option, but I’m
basically stuck with having to play Lance Moore in one of my leagues, and I’m
not too depressed about it.
The Patriots have the best passing attack in the NFL and
can’t stop anyone else from throwing the ball. What else is new?
Riddle me this: The Jets pass defense is excellent, their
rush defense is terrible, Danny Woodhead is banged up, and the Law Firm doesn’t
quite seem to be in session yet. Why is Stevan Ridley only owned in 26% of
leagues? If you’ll recall, he scored 3 touchdowns in the first pre-season game
and had a pretty solid game 2 as well before disappearing into thin air for
about a month. Now he’s back and averaging 8 yards per carry. The guy should be
starting in more leagues than he’s currently owned in. In my 0-4 league, I’m
working on a trade that would essentially swap Roethlisberger for Ridley, which
would leave me with a starting line-up featuring Curtis Painter, Ridley, Cedric
Benson, and Pierre Garcon. Did I mention this is the league I never really
cared about?
In other news, you’re probably going to want to start
Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski. Aside from Ridley, there’s no one else on the
team I’d be playing this week; not only would I not start Branch or Ochocinco,
but they’re both droppable.
Second best team in the league is a lot of pressure to
put on Matthew Stafford’s rotator cuff, Calvin Johnson’s ACL, and Jahvid Best’s
skull, but I really believe this team has the total package.
Let’s do a little exercise: power rank the 32 offensive
lines (with 32 being the highest) and power rank the 32 defensive lines. Add
the scores together and smack yourself in the face if Detroit isn’t at least 5
points ahead of everyone else in the league and/or if you have a double digit
number next to Pittsburgh or St. Louis. They’re almost always going to win the
battle in the trenches, which keeps Stafford protected and which keeps pressure
on the opposing quarterback. It’s just a shame they have a running back who
couldn’t find daylight in the desert.
This week, against a Bears defense that has allowed at
least 270 passing yards in each game, I’m expecting another amazing game out of
Calvin Johnson, another great game out of Stafford, another above average game
out of Pettigrew, and solid but hardly fantasy worthy performances from
Burleson and Young. If you’re in a PPR league, feel free to use Best as you
normally would, because the Bears are completely vulnerable to pass catching
running backs, but don’t expect his 3.2 YPC to improve.
The reigning Super Bowl champs are undefeated and
unstoppable. Atlanta has a poor secondary, so roll with Rodgers, Jennings,
Driver, Nelson, and Finley without any fear. Avoid Grant and Starks if you can,
as this wouldn’t be a favorable match up even if we knew who the feature back
was going to be.
If you’re in an eliminator league and have the guts to
pick anyone other than the Giants, here’s how I would rank your 5 best options:
#5. New Orleans
#4. New England
#3. Detroit
#2. Minnesota
#1. New York Giants
And if you feel like betting an upset on the moneyline,
Oakland (+200) is playing in a game they could win at least 4 out of 10 times.
Hope you enjoyed this 9,000+ word ride. When Grantland
decides they need some fantasy analysis, I should qualify on the length of
these things along. If these articles somehow didn’t answer some of your
questions, hit me up on twitter (@kerrancejames) for 140 character bits of
fantasy wisdom.
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