If all you're looking for is another fantasy analyst's set of position rankings, scroll down to the bottom of the page to see how I'm ranking the top 26 QB, 36 RB, 36 WR, and 20 TE options for Week 7.
However, if you're looking for power rankings of the 32 NFL team with advice on who to play this week as well as some occasionally humorous, usually statistical analysis, they boy do I have 8,000 words for you.
There will definitely still be some tweaks to this column over the next few weeks, but my hope is that it will become a helpful weekly column for fantasy owners, people in pick'em pools, gamblers, and anyone who's somehow still alive in a suicide pool.
Andrew Luck or
Bust
Miami, St. Louis,
Indianapolis, Jacksonville
There isn’t a single head coach in this group who should
live to see Week 9. Between these 4 teams, there will be less than 10 games
won, and that includes the 2 games that Jacksonville and Indianapolis play
against each other.
32 (32) Miami
Dolphins (0-5, vs. Den)
There are only 4 games left on the schedule that they
have any hope of winning, and hope isn’t exactly a word I would use to describe
any aspect of this team.
However, there is one massive bright spot for fantasy
owners in Miami, and for the second straight week, I’ll be referencing Madden
in my synopsis of the Dolphins. There’s a trend developing around the NFL that
has been an integral part of Madden for over a decade: if you’re incapable of
reading a defense, you key in on one receiver that you trust, and you throw the
ball to him on 70% of your passing plays, regardless of the coverage or down
and distance. With Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, we’ve been witnessing this for
the past year and a half, (as much as you can witness games that are difficult
to watch), Curtis Painter has been doing it for the past 3 weeks with Pierre
Garcon (ironic, considering how many passes he dropped last season), and this
past Monday, we saw it with Matt Moore (#25 QB) and Brandon Marshall (#9 WR).
Revis Island be damned, Moore was going to try to get the ball to Marshall as
much as possible, resulting in over 100 yards and a few interceptions, and I
suspect that will also be the case this weekend against Champ Bailey and the 22nd
ranked Broncos pass defense. Denver’s rush defense isn’t any better than its
pass defense, so I think Daniel Thomas (#18 RB if he’s healthy) should serve
nicely as a #2 RB or Flex, and that Reggie Bush (#32 RB) could be worthy of a
flyer this week in deeper leagues.
31 (31) St. Louis
Rams (0-5, @Dal)
As a team that desperately needed someone for Bradford to
throw to, the Rams were the obvious benefactor in one of the two strange trades
that happened so far this week; adding Brandon Lloyd (#29 WR) at the “cost” of
a 6th round draft pick. Here’s my question(s): How exactly does the
guy who led the NFL in receiving yards last season have less value than
approximately 200 collegiate guys entering the draft pool this April? Isn’t that
draft pick going to a Broncos team that has had arguably the worst draft
classes over the course of the past decade? How many more hours need to pass
before we find out that Lloyd is a devout Muslim or Buddhist and vehemently refused
to be a part of a locker room led by Tebow? That’s the only rational
explanation for this trade, right?
Unfortunately, Sam Bradford (#19 QB for the time being)
may be out for 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain, so it might be a month
before we get to see if they’re able to make a connection. If Bradford does
play, he’s been connecting frequently with Lance Kendricks (#16 TE) as of late,
making him one of the best options that you can probably find on your waiver
wire. Regardless of Bradford’s status, I’m not a fan of Steven Jackson this
week (#19 RB). He’s one of those names that you feel compelled to play if he’s
on your roster, but the Cowboys have the best rush defense in the NFL (69.6
yards per game, 1 TD in 5 games), so I would at least think about (and probably
end up deciding against) benching him if your team isn’t being decimated by the
bye weeks.
30 (30)
Indianapolis Colts (0-6, @NO)
They’re one loss ahead of the Dolphins and Rams in the
Andrew Luck Sweepstakes, but they’re clearly a better team that just continues
to find ways to lose games they could have won. In a 32 team league with a
considerably lower number of serviceable quarterbacks to go around, Curtis
Painter (#14 QB) has actually looked better than anyone was expecting. Against
a very good Bengals pass defense last week, he completed 68% of his passes en
route to a Josh Freeman-ish 188 yards with 1 TD, 1 INT, and a few scrambles for
14 yards. He’s somehow still available in 94.6% of leagues, and he’s certainly worth
a shot if your primary QB is on a bye or facing a very good defense. Among his
targets, you’re definitely playing Pierre Garcon (#13 WR), you’re probably
playing Reggie Wayne if you own him (#31 WR), you shouldn’t even own Austie
Collie anymore, and I think we’re finally at the point where you can count on
Dallas Clark (#9 TE) for some solid production.
The Colts running situation isn’t nearly as cut and dry.
Fantasy owners across the country agree that they should just hand the reins
over to Delone Carter (#23 RB), but the Colts seem committed to keeping Joseph
Addai and Donald Brown in the mix whenever they’re healthy enough to fall down
on first contact. It’s tough to hope for anything better than borderline flex
numbers from the primary back in a 3 headed rushing attack that hardly runs
well to begin with; let alone when it’s facing a slightly above average rush
defense in a game they’ll likely trail from the beginning. But with bye weeks
still heavily upon us, I understand it might be necessary to play a Colts
running back, at which point I think Carter is the one you want.
29 (29)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5, vs. Bal)
As much as it’s possible to look bad when you lose by 4
at the home field of the “defending” Super Bowl runners-up, that’s how bad the
Jaguars looked last week. Having watched the game against my will (a Steelers
fan who arrived to the bar at 2:00 demanded that they put her game on the
Carolina/Atlanta TV I had been sitting in front of since 12:30, even though the
Steelers game was being shown 4 TVs further down the bar, and even though
there’s a damn Steelers fan club within 4 miles of where we were. Once you’ve
set the precedent of appeasing a whiny yinzer, it’s time for me to take my
business elsewhere.), I have no idea how the final score ended up being as
close as it was. Jacksonville was visibly outplayed in every aspect of the game
except for the scoreboard.
The only Jaguar I would really consider playing this week
is Maurice Jones-Drew (#9 RB), but even he might have a rough go of it against
the 3rd ranked Ravens rush defense. Mike Thomas (#28 WR) still gets
a ton of targets, so he might be worth a spot start if you’re desperate at WR,
but you absolutely don’t want to start Blaine Gabbert (#26 QB). The only reason
that I ranked Marcedes Lewis at all (#20 TE) is to remind you that you don’t
want to play him either; he has all of 10 receptions so far this season, and
David Garrard isn’t walking through that door. As a rule of thumb, avoid any
non-MJD Jaguars that you can.
Awful But
Improving
Arizona, Seattle,
Denver
Thanks to their Week 6 bye, odds are that I’m
misremembering how bad these three teams actually are, but at this point in
time, they seem to be in better shape than they were 3 weeks ago, and it
wouldn’t surprise me if any or all of them finished the year with 6 wins.
28 (28) Arizona
Cardinals (1-4, vs. Pit)
Though it certainly isn’t evident in my player rankings,
this reeks of a trap game to me. Arizona is a desperate team, coming off a bye,
playing at home, against the team that denied them a Super Bowl ring; a
Steelers team that is probably and understandably more concerned about the 3
games that it plays after it presumably takes care of business in Arizona.
Despite getting slaughtered in Minnesota before their bye
week, it feels like the Cardinals have been showing some improvement on the
offensive side of the ball. Kevin Kolb (#23 QB) has been incorporating Early
Doucet and Jeff King into the offense, making it less of a “Fitzgerald or Bust”
pass attack. I’m not suggesting they’re capable of winning games in which he
doesn’t have a big day, but the addition of the other “threats” should open up
just enough room for Larry Fitzgerald (#8 WR) to be Larry Fitzgerald; even
against the #1 ranked Steelers pass defense. Beanie Wells (#12 RB) is a
must-start at full health against the Steelers’ impeccably average rush defense,
but he and Fitzgerald are the only Cardinals that I think you can rely on this
weekend. If you’re really in a pinch, the #2 WR has been the one to score
against the Steelers in each of the past 2 weeks, so I wouldn’t argue with
taking a shot on Early Doucet (#35 WR), but I certainly wouldn’t bank on him
having a productive day either.
27 (27) Seattle
Seahawks (2-3, @Cle)
St. Louis at 31. Arizona at 28. Seattle at 27. San
Francisco might win the NFC West by more games than the NFC West winner won
last season. It’s a shame, really, that the Seahawks have won two games,
because they’re arguably the only team aside from Miami that can say it is in
dire need of Andrew Luck. Arizona, Jacksonville, and St. Louis theoretically
already have their quarterbacks for the future, and Peyton Manning should come
back for at least another 2 or 3 years for the Colts. Meanwhile, Miami and
Seattle are working with a collection of QBs who have been in the league more
than long enough to prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that they’ll never
amount to anything.
So whether it’s Tarvaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst
under center, you don’t want Seattle’s quarterback (#24 QB) on the road against
one of the better pass defenses in the league to date. Though you definitely
don’t want the QB, you probably want his #1 WR, because Sidney Rice (#16 WR)
has been playing admirably since his return from injury, and should only get
better coming out of the bye week. Perhaps you even give the #2 WR a shot,
because Doug Baldwin (#32 WR) has been putting together a nice little
under-the-radar rookie campaign. There’s no one else in the pass game of any
interest, but you’ll probably want to start Marshawn Lynch (#17 RB) against the
27th ranked Browns rush defense. If Joseph Addai can rush for 64
yards against them, anyone else can do better.
26 (26) Denver
Broncos (1-4, @Mia)
I’ll admit it. I’m excited to see what he can do. If Kyle
Orton was starting this game against the Dolphins, you couldn’t possibly make
me any less interested in this game. But with Tim Tebow (#12 QB) taking the
snaps? Suddenly this battle for ineptitude becomes one of the 4 early afternoon
games I’m actually interested in watching. Say what you want about him (who
hasn’t?), he certainly makes things more interesting.
Unfortunately, there’s virtually no one for him to throw
the ball to. Brandon Lloyd is out of town, and Demaryius Thomas and Eddie Royal
are questionable to start at best. That leaves Eric Decker (#30 WR), Daniel
Fells (#17 TE), Matt Willis, and I suppose Dante Rosario as the only guys to
look for. It’s going to be hard to blame the kid for running all the time if
you keep in mind that those were the options he’s been blessed with. The lack
of a real pass game should result in a big day for Willis McGahee (#13 RB),
because he’s their best shot at moving the ball against a very forgiving
Dolphins defense. And if they keep using him as a pass-catching spell HB,
Knowshon Moreno (#34 RB) might be a sneaky good start in a PPR league.
Capable of
Winning, Likely to Lose
Minnesota,
Carolina, Kansas City, Cleveland
There’s just something about each of these teams that
wouldn’t completely shock you if they won or lost any game against any team by
30 points, but you still don’t ever totally expect them to win a game unless
it’s at home against a team sucking for Luck.
25 (23) Minnesota
Vikings (1-5, vs. GB)
Two weeks ago, the Vikings had one of the most efficient
offenses in the league. Last week, they absolutely looked like one of the worst
teams in the league. I believe their true identity lies somewhere closer to the
latter, but all bets are off with the insertion of the rookie QB. (Okay, not
really; you can still totally bet Green Bay -9, and probably should.)
This is one of those rare weeks where Adrian Peterson (#5
RB) probably isn’t the best possible option at RB. Granted, you’re still
playing him unless you have the most stacked team in the history of fantasy
football, but against the Packers’ 5th ranked rush defense, in a
game where the opposing team would clearly be stuffing the box and daring
Christian Ponder (#21 QB) to beat them deep, I think you have to considerably
lower your normal expectations for Peterson.
It’s also imperative that you lower your expectations for
the primary receivers in Minnesota. Aside from returning the opening kickoff
for a score in the first game of the season, Percy Harvin (#23 WR) hasn’t yet
found the end zone. He had a mildly encouraging 7 receptions for 78 yards on
Sunday night, but without any touchdowns, it’s getting difficult to argue that
he’s more valuable than Donald Driver or Ben Obomanu; and I’m not about to rank
either of those guys in my top 36. At tight end, Visanthe Shiancoe (#15 TE) has
hardly been the definition of consistent production this season, and it’s
tricky to forecast how he’ll do without McNabb. Rookie QBs often rely heavily
on their check down receiver, which is often the tight end, but Kyle Rudolph
has been as good of a pass catching tight end as Shiancoe, if not better, and I
highly doubt that Minnesota’s tight end by committee is one that you really want
on your fantasy team.
24 (22) Carolina
Panthers (1-5, vs. Was)
If only they could play defense.
In their 5 losses, they’ve scored 23.4 points per game,
but they’ve allowed their opponents to score 30.6 points. With MLB Jon Beason
out for the season, teams have had nothing resembling difficulty running on the
Panthers, and it’s not as if Chris Gamble is striking fear in the heart of
opposing wide receivers. Yes, the quarterback has thrown his fair share of back
breaking interceptions, but that’s bound to happen when you start a rookie.
Even with those turnovers, the offense has played much better than their 1-5
record would indicate; which has been great news for fantasy owners and people
who bet the over/under lines (although there’s no way I would bet the over this
week).
The Skins appear to have an above average defense, so
even in a week without Brady, Vick, Eli, or Fitzpatrick, I only have Cam Newton ranked as the 4th best QB option.
Vick didn’t exactly excel against the Skins last week, and considering they’re
very similar quarterbacks, it wouldn’t shock me if Newton was held to 300 total
yards and 1 TD. Fortunately, we can say with a fair amount of certainty that
Steve Smith (#7 WR) will be the primary beneficiary of whatever passing yards
Newton amasses.
Unfortunately, there’s still no real rhyme or reason to
the Panthers’ backfield. Jonathan Stewart (#30 RB) had more yards and scored
the goal line touchdown, but DeAngelo Williams (#21 RB) had more carries, and
has increasingly been receiving more carries than Stewart over the past 3
weeks. Granted, that difference has gone from 2 carries to 3 carries to 5
carries, but if you own DeAngelo, you’ll take any causes for optimism that you
can find. The tight end situation in Carolina is a little bit clearer than its
RB situation, but so long as Jeremy Shockey is still around, I can’t in good
faith rank Greg Olsen (#11 TE) in the top 10; even though he has clearly been
the primary tight end for Newton, and has been the one getting all the
touchdowns as of late.
23 (25) Kansas
City Chiefs (2-3, @Oak)
Sitting here in my 2010 AFC West Division Champions
hoodie, I still don’t really know what to make of this team. Despite losing
Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs somehow have the 6th best rush offense;
and despite losing Eric Berry, they somehow have an average pass defense. Their
3 losses have come against teams in the top 30% of the power rankings, and
their 2 wins have come against teams in the bottom 25%. I still think they’re a
bad team that will somehow find a way to win 5 games and play itself right out
of a top 5 draft pick.
From a fantasy perspective, Dwayne Bowe (#3 WR) should
have a monster game against the Raiders’ 28th ranked pass defense.
Over the past 4 weeks, Bowe has averaged 5 receptions for 101 yards and a
score, and each of those games came against teams with a better defense than
Oakland has. That pretty much concludes your Kansas City wish list. Though I
expect Bowe to have a big day, he’s virtually the only guy that Matt Cassel
(#15 QB) has to throw to; and I think we can all agree that Cassel is hardly a
threat to throw for 250+ yards and 4 TD in consecutive games. Jackie Battle
(#16 RB) had a solid day two weeks ago, but with Dexmas JoCluster still in the
picture, I wouldn’t be counting on a guy with 70 career touches to repeat that
performance. He’s definitely worth starting, but I don’t think he’s a 6 YPC
kind of guy. Further down the list, I’ve got Dexter McCluster (#33 RB) if
you’re in a PPR league, but I wouldn’t even consider him if it’s a standard
league.
22 (21) Cleveland
Browns (2-3, vs. Sea)
Whether or not Hillis starts (my rankings assume he
won’t), this is a Cleveland team that has been and will continue to be a
collection of guys that you really want no part of in fantasy football. Sure,
you have to at least consider a starter from any team, especially during bye
weeks, but chances are you have better options on your bench or on the waiver
wire.
Against a pretty bad Seahawks pass defense, there’s a
very good chance that Greg Little (#18 WR) will continue to enhance his fantasy
value. Little isn’t a bona fide starter just yet, but as I’ve been saying for
weeks, Colt McCoy (#16 QB) would have more value if there was actually someone
on that team that he could trust to throw the ball to, and Little has clearly
become one of McCoy’s favorite targets in the past few weeks. The other primary
pass catcher, Benjamin Watson (#10 TE) has been a very consistent (albeit, not
great) producer, and has some definite value given his potential to score if
and when the Browns are in the red zone.
I wouldn’t advise starting any of the Browns’ running
backs this week. Seattle’s rush defense ranks 7th in the NFL, and
either Peyton Hillis (unranked) will be playing at less than full strength, or
Montario Hardesty (#24 RB) will be in the game averaging 3 yards per carry.
He’s maybe worth a start in a deep league or a PPR league, but I presume Colt
McCoy will be throwing the ball 40+ times, as usual.
NFC EAST
Washington, Philadelphia,
New York Giants, Dallas
None of these teams is definitively better than any of
the other 3 (although I would argue that Washington is clearly in 4th
place), which is why Dallas, Philadelphia, and New York are each between +220
and +250 to win the division.
21 (17) Washington
Redskins (3-2, @Car)
As I predicted going into last week, the Redskins now
have a controversy at QB and RB. Rex Grossman threw 4 interceptions against the
Eagles, after which John Beck came into the game and orchestrated a pair of
long drives that nearly brought Washington back from the dead. That wouldn’t
really be a controversy if the receivers weren’t voicing support for Grossman
to remain the starter. It looks like John Beck (#22 QB) is going to get the nod
this week, but I don’t think it would surprise anyone if Shanahan changed his
mind at the last minute, or at the 7th minute of the 2nd
quarter. Until proven otherwise, you don’t want any part of the Redskins’ QB situation;
though you could certainly do worse than Santana Moss (#24 WR) and Fred Davis
(#6 TE), who have a tendency to produce no matter who’s throwing them the ball.
The RB situation is even more blurry, but worth much more
to look into, because the Skins have a solid rush offense and are facing the
previously-mentioned, still-atrocious Panthers rush defense. Last week, which
includes the entire week leading up the game, the Redskins’ running back
dilemma was an absolute disaster for all partial owners of Troyman Hirainlu.
Reports all week were that Hightower would be the #1 guy, right up until
kickoff when they made Torain the “feature” back for all of 22 yards while
Hightower sat out the entire game. Even though he didn’t do well last week, I
think Ryan Torain (#20 RB) has the most favor with Shanahan, and I would rather
have Roy Helu (#36 RB) than Hightower if I had to choose between the two; but
as has been the case since draft day, I wouldn’t personally touch this
backfield with a ten foot pole.
20 (24)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, BYE)
19 (18) New York
Giants (4-2, BYE)
My guess is that both of these teams finish the season
with an 8-8 record, and that they’ll both somehow make headlines during their
bye week.
18 (14) Dallas
Cowboys (2-3, vs. StL)
Remember last year when the Chargers were visibly and
statistically one of the best teams in the league, yet somehow found a way to
miss the playoffs? That might be where we’re headed with the Cowboys. They’ve had
arguably the most difficult schedule to open the season, but have one of the
best passing offenses and total defenses to show for it. If they’re as talented
as they should be, every game left on their schedule is incredibly winnable,
starting with a home game against the Rams this Sunday.
I would gladly start any key component in the Cowboys
passing game. He’s certainly been dragged through the mud, but Tony Romo (#5
QB) has averaged over 300 yards per game and is only going to get better as he
gets his timing back with Miles Austin (#5 WR). Dez Bryant (#14 WR) hasn’t been
the best PPR receiver in the world, but when he plays, he’s going to get you a
few big catches, and he’s probably going to find the end zone. Jason Witten (#2
TE) wasn’t targeted much last week against a Patriots team that, for all of its
defensive flaws, can really shut down opposing tight ends, but he found the end
zone and I suspect he’ll do it again this week against a terrible Rams defense.
But the worst part of the Rams’ defense has been its
ability to stop the run. He’s a definite wild card, but with Felix Jones out
with a high ankle sprain, DeMarco Murray (#14 RB) should get the bulk of the
carries against a team allowing opponents to rack up 163 rushing yards per
game. One way or the other, this is going to be a statement game for the
Cowboys, and I think it’ll be a good statement when they finish the day with
close to 500 yards of total offense.
Treading Water
Atlanta, Chicago,
Cincinnati, Houston, Tennessee, New York Jets, Oakland
Either Houston or Tennessee will wind up winning the AFC
South, but the other six teams in this section will probably finish the season
within 1 game of 9-7, but ultimately miss out on the playoffs unless one of the
teams in the Top 10 completely falls apart. (Here’s looking at you, Tampa Bay
and Buffalo.)
17 (16) Atlanta
Falcons (3-3, @Det)
16 (19) Chicago
Bears (3-3, @TB)
Despite the fact that the Bears beat the Falcons
convincingly when they played in Week 1, if they played on a neutral field
today, I feel like most people would mistakenly pick the Falcons to win the
game. For some reason, public perception is that the Falcons are better than
3-3 and that the Bears are worse than 3-3, but I feel it’s the other way
around. The Bears’ 3 losses came at the hands of the 3 best teams in the NFC,
each of which was still anyone’s game late in the 3rd quarter, and
they’ve looked pretty good in their three wins. Atlanta, on the other hand,
can’t even move the ball in games that they lose, and their 3 wins were nail
biters over teams that rank 20th or worse in my eyes.
Nevertheless, the Falcons seem to have all the fantasy
studs. Michael Turner (#4 RB) should have a field day against a Lions front
seven that has been shredded in consecutive weeks by Forte and Gore, especially
in the aftermath of a game in which they displayed a renewed commitment to
their rush attack. Following a 139 yard 2 TD day, Turner trails only Adrian
Peterson in rushing touchdowns, and proved that he’s still capable of putting
the team on his back; even if it was against the Panthers.
Because of the apparent shift in Atlanta’s offensive game
plan, and the fact that Detroit has the 6th best pass defense in the
NFL, the fantasy anticipation for Matt Ryan (#17 QB) and company is
considerably lower than usual. Having entered the season as one of the
consensus top 3 fantasy WR, Roddy White (#10 WR) just barely cracks the top 10,
even in a week without Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Stevie Johnson, AJ Green,
Hakeem Nicks, and DeSean Jackson. White was targeted on all of 5 plays last week,
resulting in just 21 receiving yards, and the matchup doesn’t get any better
this week; but he’s still Roddy White, and Julio Jones (#27 WR) is still banged
up, so if the Falcons attempt anything further than ten yards down the field,
it will almost certainly be to Roddy. Within those first ten yards though, Tony
Gonzalez (#8 TE) should continue to build on what has already been another
great year for him.
Meanwhile, the
Chicago Bears still have a very “Forte or Bust” type of offense. Even though he
didn’t find the end zone last Sunday, Matt Forte (#2 RB) did have 23 touches
for 123 yards in a game that was over by halftime; and this week the Bears go
up against a Buccaneers defense that is much less formidable than the Vikings
rush defense they just faced. The whole London thing is an X-Factor that I
don’t think you can account for, but it certainly doesn’t scare me away from
starting Forte in every single format.
Jay Cutler (#8 QB) is my overreaction / bold prediction
of the week. When he has time to actually set his feet in the pocket, he’s
proven that he’s better than your average quarterback; and suffice it to say,
Tampa Bay’s 26th ranked pass defense won’t have Warren Sapp or
Derrick Brooks coming after Cutler. If Cutler does anywhere near as well as I
expect him to do, Roy Williams (#21 WR) will be a solid #2 WR option, and Devin
Hester (#36 WR) should have some value as a flex play, especially if your
league awards points for return yards.
15 (20) Cincinnati
Bengals (4-2, BYE)
Tied with Tampa Bay for the biggest jump of the week (5
spots), I’m officially purchasing a small amount of shares in the Cincinnati
Bengals. The offense is nothing special, but so long as they have one of the
best defenses in the NFL and continue turning the ball over just once per game,
they’ve got a puncher’s chance in any game, and might be able to ride a
favorable schedule to a 10-6 season.
14 (8) Houston
Texans (3-3, @Ten)
13 (10) Tennessee
Titans (3-2, vs. Hou)
Without even playing a game last week, Tennessee was
leapfrogged by three other teams, and Houston simply played poorly enough to
warrant being dropped six spots in the rankings. Both of these teams looked
great by the end of Week 4, but have been slightly falling apart since then as
they both attempt to find their identity without their star wide receiver.
Fortunately for Houston, Andre Johnson should be back
within a week or two, but it’s highly doubtful that they’ll have him in this
one. They are a completely different team without him, which is hardly groundbreaking
analysis, because the Lions would be just as helpless without Calvin Johnson,
but it’s pretty clear that they cannot play from behind. With Johnson out, the
opposing team can focus on just stopping the run, and if they’re able to take
Arian Foster (#7 RB) out of the game, it doesn’t have much difficulty keeping
Jacoby Jones (#19 WR) and Kevin Walter (unranked) from beating them deep.
The X-Factor for Matt Schaub (#11 QB) has been Owen
Daniels (#5 TE), though he hasn’t been anywhere near as much of a factor as we
thought he would be once AJ went limp. Daniels was only targeted on 3 of
Schaub’s 37 pass attempts last week, much of which was due to Baltimore’s focus
on shutting him down. If he has another sub-par day, so will Matt Schaub and so
will the Texans.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee absolutely has
to get Chris Johnson (#10 RB) going. Without a great wide receiver, tight end,
or quarterback, Chicago has left it up to Matt Forte to guide them to victory,
and Tennessee needs to do the exact same thing. Matt Hasselbeck (#10 QB), Nate
Washington (#22 WR), and Jared Cook (#18 TE) are not the answer to life in
Tennessee without Kenny Britt.
12 (13) New York
Jets (3-3, vs. SD)
The Jets are kind of like the Falcons, except the Falcons
are about an 82 on offense and a 67 on defense, and the Jets are about a 67 on
offense and an 82 on defense. When they lose games, they look terrible; when
they win games, it’s usually a result of their opponent losing the game than
the Jets actually winning it. The most intimidating things are the Jets are a cornerback
you can choose to avoid and a head coach who talks a big game. Nothing else
about this team is going to keep you up at night, and that’s why they’ll
ultimately miss the playoffs.
This week, the Jets 31st ranked rush offense
goes up against the 2nd ranked Chargers pass defense. I must say, I’ll
be curious to see how they intend to score when Mark Sanchez (#20 QB) is
searching for holes that don’t exist and Shonn Greene (#22 RB) is incapable of
even finding the ones that do exist. 296 total yards might win you a game against
the Dolphins, but that same offensive effort won’t get you a point against San
Diego. Inevitably, they’ll get some production out of Santonio Holmes (#15 WR)
and Dustin Keller (#12 TE), because Sanchez should at least be able to throw
for 175 yards, but you can’t count on huge days from anyone on the Jets this
week; which really isn’t anything new.
11 (12) Oakland
Raiders (4-2, vs. KC)
Not sure if you heard about this – it kind of flew under
the radar – but it looks like the Raiders made some sort of trade with the
Bengals this week.
Will Carson Palmer come in and immediately contribute in
a positive way to this offense? Probably not. Does Carson Palmer give the
Raiders a better chance to win than Kyle Boller – a guy who has attempted just
18 passes in the past season and a half? Absolutely. Had they held on to them,
were the Raiders going to screw up the draft picks that they traded for Palmer?
Without a doubt.
I’m sure I’m in the minority, but until Palmer starts
throwing pick sixes, I actually like the trade. It instills a confidence in
your team and your fan base that says we’re sick of rebuilding and we’re going
for it all this year. Maybe it cripples them a little bit a few years down the
road, but on the off chance he still has a few years left in the tank, how can
you argue with trading for a former Pro Bowler QB in this pass-heavy league the
NFL has become?
As far as this week is concerned, I would keep a safe
distance from that entire passing game. If you’re in a state of desperation,
you might get a few points out of Carson Palmer (#18 QB), Darrius Heyward-Bey
(#26 WR), Jacoby Ford (#33 WR), and/or Kevin Boss (#19 TE), but we all know the
only Raider that you want is Darren McFadden (#3 RB). Until Palmer is fully
situated, they’ll find a way to get Run DMC 30+ touches per game, all of which
he can do some serious damage with. Even if DMC does get that many carries,
there should still be at least 10 touches in the cards for Michael Bush (#31
RB), so I wouldn’t mind using him as a bye week fill-in.
Fan Favorites
Tampa Bay, Buffalo,
San Francisco
Speaking from first-hand experience, if your favorite
team sucks, then you’ve probably embraced one of, if not all three of these
teams (in addition to Detroit, of course). Whether due to their style of play
or the fact that they’re turning the page on a recent history of incompetence,
these teams are fun to watch and easy to root for.
10 (15) Tampa Bay
Buccaneers (4-2, vs. Chi)
It’s been a bizarre month for Tampa Bay. After eking out
a Monday Night win over the still winless Indianapolis Colts, people started
wondering whether they were a legitimate 3-1 team. Following their 45 point
loss in San Francisco, everyone wrote them off as dead. Then this past week,
they shocked everyone and beat the Saints. Now they fly to London to play a
home game against the Bears? Only in the NFL.
The good news for the Bucs is that they’re facing a
Chicago defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in total yards
allowed, so Josh Freeman (#9 QB) just might have a repeat of last week’s 300+
yard 2 TD day, which would mean big things for Kellen Winslow (#4 TE) and Mike
Williams (#17 WR), who was unofficially reinstated as Freeman’s favorite target
last week. I’ve also got Arrelious Benn (#34 WR) sneaking into the rankings
thanks to how much Freeman loves to spread the ball around.
It seems unlikely that LeGarrette Blount would even
travel with the team to London, so Earnest Graham (#15 RB) should have another
fairly productive game against a Bears team that has allowed 4 rushing TD in
the past 3 weeks.
9 (7) Buffalo
Bills (4-2, BYE)
8 (11) San
Francisco 49ers (5-1, BYE)
Remember when Chris Berman used to pick them as his Super
Bowl teams every pre-season?
Better Than Most,
But Not Quite Polished
Pittsburgh, San
Diego, New Orleans, Detroit, Baltimore
There’s something about all 5 of these teams that puts
them head and shoulders ahead of the 25 teams ranked behind them, but still
leaves them a mile behind the Super Bowl favorites. Think about it: if you put
any of these teams on a neutral field against any of the teams ranked 8-32,
you’d be picking the team from this group, right? But if you put any of them on
a neutral field against New England or Green Bay, you’d put your money on Brady
or Rodgers, right? They’re all playoff caliber, but they don’t quite have that
Super Bowl factor yet.
7 (9) Pittsburgh
Steelers (4-2, @Ari)
The length of this article has gotten completely out of
control, so I’ll be going through the rest of these teams in an abbreviated
fashion.
Want to know what’s scary about the Steelers? Their best
defender (James Harrison) has been out with a fractured orbital bone, Ben
Roethlisberger clearly hasn’t been himself, their turnover differential so far
on the season is negative 10, and they’re still 4-2. I’m not sure what exactly
the opposite of “firing on all cylinders” would be, but that’s what the
Steelers have been doing, and they still have a winning record. Yikes.
If Ben Roethlisberger (#6 QB) doesn’t have a big game
this week against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, then I’m not entirely
sure you can feel safe, let alone confident, starting him in your fantasy
league again this season. Needless to say, I think he’ll have a big game.
Aside from Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace
(#2 WR) has been the most consistently amazing wide receiver in the league this
season, and should continue that trend this weekend.
After last week’s break-out game, Rashard Mendenhall (#8
RB) can once again be considered a durable and reliable fantasy running back, and
should be started in all formats.
6 (5) San Diego
Chargers (4-1, @NYJ)
Wherefore art thou, Philip Rivers (#7 QB)? Rivers was
amazing last season despite missing Gates and Vincent Jackson for large chunks
of it, so it would be foolish to assign blame for his 6 TD / 7 INT start to the
season to the lack of Gates (especially considering he’s on pace to pass his
previous career high for passing yards by over 200 yards). The completions and
yardage are there; the touchdowns are bound to come.
Ryan Mathews (#6 RB) has been downright unstoppable this
season, and is quietly on pace for over 2,100 yards from scrimmage. Against a
Jets rush defense that ranks 28th in the NFL, he’s poised for a big
game in a big market. His value drops a little bit if Mike Tolbert (#28 RB) is
able to fully return from his concussion, but Mathews had been putting up big
numbers when Tolbert was at full strength, so I wouldn’t worry too much about
him.
Vincent Jackson (#6 WR) and Malcom Floyd (#25 WR) should
have big games, even with the whole Revis Island factor included. You know
Rivers is going to throw for at least 250 yards, and if Gates is even able to
play this week, the Jets have been solid against opposing tight ends.
5 (4) New Orleans
Saints (4-2, vs. Ind)
After 6 weeks, Darren Sproles (#11 RB) has clearly
emerged as the Saints running back that you want; especially if you’re in a PPR
league. He has 511 yards from scrimmage, which is almost double the total that
Mark Ingram (#27 RB) has amassed. If it weren’t for a couple of goal line
touchdowns in recent weeks, Ingram wouldn’t even be worth owning anymore.
Speaking of barely worth owning anymore, if you have one
of Drew Brees’ (#3 QB) receivers with a name other than Jimmy Graham (#1 TE) or
Marques Colston (#12 WR), then you’re completely wasting a roster spot. The
Meachem/Moore/Henderson trio has had all of 19 targets since Colston’s return,
which works out to just over 3 targets per person per game. It’s kind of hard
to count on a guy for any sort of fantasy production when he’s only getting 3 chances
per game. If you don’t believe me, here’s a quick list of names receiving
roughly 3 targets per game: Lavelle Hawkins, Emmanuel Sanders, Derek Hagan,
Josh Morgan, Brandon LaFell…do you want any of those guys on your team? That’s essentially
what you can expect to get out of Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, or Devery
Henderson for the rest of the season.
4 (2) Detroit
Lions (5-1, vs. Atl)
Javhid Best probably isn’t going to suit up this weekend
due to a concussion. If he doesn’t, it’s anyone’s guess who the primary running
back will be. My assumption is that Keiland Williams (#26 RB) will get the bulk
of the touches, but it could very well be Maurice Morris or Ronnie Brown. Even
if we find out for certain who the starter will be, the Falcons have the 8th
best rush defense in the league, and Detroit hasn’t exactly been running the
ball with any sort of proficiency, so I would recommend avoiding the Lions’
back field entirely.
You’re probably going to want a piece of their passing
game, though. The Falcons pass defense is pathetic at best, so you’re
absolutely starting Matthew Stafford (#2 QB), Calvin Johnson (#1 WR), and
Brandon Pettigrew (#3 TE) if you have the luxury. Until either Titus Young or
Nate Burleson clearly emerges as the #2 WR, I’d be hesitant to take a flyer on
either of them, but I’d definitely rather have one of them than Lance Moore,
Robert Meachem, or Devery Henderson.
3 (6) Baltimore
Ravens (4-1, @Jac)
Not since opening weekend against the Steelers has Ray
Rice (#1 RB) reminded us why he was the consensus #2 overall pick on fantasy
draft day. Obviously, I think he’s due for one of those days this week against
a Jaguars team that allowed 175+ rushing yards in 2 of the past 3 weeks.
Which Joe Flacco (#13 QB) will we see on Monday night?
Probably one that hands it off considerably more times than he attempts to
throw it, since the Jaguars allegedly have the 8th best pass defense;
but when he does go to the air, it’s pretty safe to assume he’ll be aiming for
Anquan Boldin (#11 WR), Ed Dickson (#14 TE), or Ray Rice since they’re the only
guys on the team averaging 4 or more targets per game this season.
The Favorites
New England, Green
Bay
Simply the best. Better than all the rest.
2 (3) New England
Patriots (5-1, BYE)
They didn’t look great last week against the Cowboys, but
a win is a win in this league, and the Patriots should finish the regular
season with the most wins in the AFC.
1 (1) Green Bay
Packers (6-0, @Min)
I don’t think the Packers rushing situation will ever get
solved. It seems like they want James Starks (#25 RB) to get 60% of the
carries, Ryan Grant (#35 RB) to get 35%, and Kuhn to get the scraps, but maybe
it’s time to just accept that both Starks and Grant are below average guys and
that the Packers don’t have a running back that you’ll ever want to start.
Fortunately, they’ve got plenty of receiving threats to
load up your roster with instead. Because I had the nerve to doubt him last
week and rank him 7th among QBs, Aaron Rodgers (#1 QB) went out and
had the best day of any QB, and I hereby vow to never rank him lower than 4th
again. As much as he spreads the ball around, Greg Jennings (#4 WR) is unmistakably
still his #1 target, and Jordy Nelson (#20 WR) has cemented his status as a
weekly deep ball threat. And although he hasn’t found the red zone yet this
month, Jermichael Finley (#7 TE) is still a bona fide top 10 tight end.
If you’re miraculously still alive in a suicide pool, I
was 5-0 last week and have another 5 suggestions for you:
5th best: Carolina over Washington
4th best: Green Bay over Minnesota
3rd best: Baltimore over Jacksonville
2nd best: New Orleans over Indianapolis
The best: Dallas over St. Louis
There aren’t any great upsets on the moneyline, but I’ll
be taking Arizona +165 to knock off the Steelers.
For any questions that the following rankings don’t
clearly answer, reach out to me on twitter (@kerrancejames) and I’ll do my best
to help you out.
Rank: QB: RB: WR: TE:
1 A Rodgers R Rice C Johnson J Graham
2 M Stafford M Forte M Wallace J Witten
3 D Brees D McFadden D Bowe B Pettigrew
4 C Newton M Turner G Jennings K Winslow
5 T Romo A Peterson M Austin O Daniels
6 B Roethlisberger R Mathews V Jackson F Davis
7 P Rivers A Foster S Smith J Finley
8 J Cutler R Mendenhall L Fitzgerald T Gonzalez
9 J Freeman M Jones-Drew B Marshall D Clark
10 M Hasselbeck C Johnson R White B Watson
11 M Schaub D Sproles A Boldin G Olsen
12 T Tebow B Wells M Colston D Keller
13 J Flacco W McGahee P Garcon H Miller
14 C Painter D Murray D Bryant E Dickson
15 M Cassel E Graham S Holmes V Shiancoe
16 C McCoy J Battle S Rice L Kendricks
17 M Ryan M Lynch M Williams D Fells
18 C Palmer D Thomas G Little J Cook
19 S Bradford S Jackson Jac Jones K Boss
20 M Sanchez R Torain J Nelson M Lewis
21 C Ponder D Williams R Williams
22 J Beck S Greene N Washington
23 K Kolb D Carter P Harvin
24 C Whitehurst M Hardesty S Moss
25 M Moore J Starks M Floyd
26 B Gabbert K Williams D Heyward-Bey
27 M Ingram Ju Jones
28 M Tolbert M Thomas
29 B Tate B Lloyd
30 J Stewart E Decker
31 M Bush R Wayne
32 R Bush D Baldwin
33 D McCluster J Ford
34 K Moreno A Benn
35 R Grant E Doucet
36 R Helu D Hester
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