I had an epiphany this past week: everyone loves (to
critique) power rankings, and everyone loves (to critique) start/sit articles.
Why not combine the two and throw in some gambling advice along the way?
What you see before you is the first half of the 32 NFL teams
ranked in ascending order of greatness, along with a considerable amount of
fantasy advice regarding the players for each team that isn’t on a bye in Week
5. So if you’re wondering how I feel about Mike Thomas this week, scroll on
down to the 29th ranked Jacksonville Jaguars, and find out along the
way that the Vegas lines on that game are laughable at best.
Without further ado: The Power Start/Sit Rankings If
Gambling Were Legal
#32-#24: Andrew Luck Sweepstakes
St. Louis, Miami,
Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Kansas City, Arizona, Denver
Seems a little early in the year to have already decided
that 28% of the league is playing for draft position, but I defy you to tell me
which of these 9 teams has any shot at making the playoffs.
Furthermore, aside from the Rams, could any of these teams
possibly pass on Luck if they had the #1 overall draft pick? Maybe he won’t be
the second coming of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, but I think most people would
agree he’s at least the next Philip Rivers, and that he has the potential to be
the best QB in the NFL within 5 years. How do you explain to your already depressed
fan base that you’re content enough with (insert terrible starting QB) that
you’re going to go a different direction with the #1 pick?
Remember the episode of Family Guy where Stewie flies to
LA to punch Will Ferrell in the face for making that god awful Bewitched movie?
As a Chiefs fan who knows Scott Pioli’s nephew well enough to find out where
the GM lives, that’s exactly what I would do on draft day if Kansas City winds
up with the #1 pick and selects anyone other than Andrew Luck.
32. St. Louis Rams
(0-4)
31. Miami Dolphins
(0-4)
By the grace of the football gods, neither of these
putrid teams are playing this week.
30. Seattle
Seahawks (1-3) [@NYG]
Had they not accidentally beaten the Cardinals two weeks
ago, I’m fairly confident the Seahawks would be the unanimous last place team
in the league. They’re a terrible team that only gets worse when playing away
from home; and considering they’re playing a 1:00 game in New York, I have to
assume at least 50% of people that are still alive in a suicide pool will be
picking against the Seahawks this weekend.
If you’re absolutely desperate (i.e. your starting
running backs are Ray Rice and Steven Jackson and the best option on waivers is
Earnest Graham), then go ahead and start Marshawn Lynch. The Giants don’t
exactly have a stellar rush defense, as Beanie Wells demonstrated last Sunday,
but seeing as how no one expects Seattle to even keep this game close, it
wouldn’t be shocking if he only had half a dozen carries and ended up with 11
rushing yards like he did in Week 2.
As far as the pass game is concerned, you don’t need me
to tell you that Jackson’s 300 yard game last week was a severe exception to
the rule. Sidney Rice has re-emerged as a borderline must-start WR, and Doug
Baldwin has begun to surface as a potential bye week fill-in, but at the end of
the day, if you have any other options at all, Rice is the only Seahawk I would
condone starting.
29. Jacksonville
Jaguars (1-3) [vs. Cin]
Good thing they got rid of David Garrard. There’s no way
they would be doing as well as dead last in the NFL in passing yards, passing
TDs, and QB rating if they hadn’t inexplicably cut him. Gabbert’s having a
little more success than McCown did, but this is still a team that can’t move
the ball to save its life, and this week, the Jags face one of the best
defenses in the NFL thus far this season.
Regardless of the defense, you’re playing MJD, because
he’ll get at least 75 rushing yards and possibly a score no matter what. And I
would at least strongly consider playing Mike Thomas since he’s tied for 7th
in the NFL in targets, and has more than twice as many as anyone else on the
Jaguars roster. But there’s no one else on this team that I would even consider
playing. I don’t care if your entire team is on a bye, there have to be better
options on waivers than Gabbert, Deji Karim, Jason Hill, or Marcedes Lewis.
[Gambling Sidebar: How are the Jaguars possibly favored
by 2.5 in this game, and yet the O/U is 37? If you think the Jaguars will win
by 3 points, it’s going to be 10-7 or 14-10, right? I mean, they score 9.8
points per game and they’re facing a considerably above average defense. I
would separately bet the Bengals and the under in this game. Operating under
the assumption there’s virtually no chance in hell that the Jaguars score 21
points against Cincinnati, the worst case scenario is that either the Bengals
blow the Jags out and ruin the under bet, or the Jags win a low scoring game by
3; under either of those scenarios, you’re only losing the juice. But this game
reeks of a Bengals 17-7 victory to me.]
28. Indianapolis
Colts (0-4) [vs. KC]
The Colts have shown some serious life in prime time each
of the past two weeks, but still don’t have a win to show for it. I think
they’re still going to win 5-6 games this season now that they’re starting a
guy who’s been around long enough to actually know the offense. Painter might
currently be one of the worst starting QBs in the league, but he’s better than
Collins, and the team just looks better with him at the helm…except for those 5
plays each game where he misses his target by about 15 yards.
Against the Chiefs, I would actually be okay with
starting just about anyone on the Colts, depending on your situation, of
course. Personally, in one of my leagues I have Roethlisberger and Flacco, and
I have every intention of picking up and starting Painter this week. The Chiefs
have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, so even though I usually hate
Joseph Addai, he looks like a good bye week flex play. Garcon has obviously
benefitted from the insertion of Painter, but I think Wayne and Clark are still
solid options as well. I’d even feel safe starting the Colts defense against
the Chiefs. I think the only Colts I wouldn’t want to play are Collie and
Carter, and in both instances, it’s just a case of not being shown anything yet
this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if they showed up to make
some sort of fantasy impact in this one.
27. Minnesota
Vikings (0-4) [vs. Ari]
The Vikings are significantly better than 0-4. They
played well enough to win all 4 of their games, none of which you can really
say are terrible losses (with the possible exception of @KC, but even a
depleted Chiefs team is capable of beating anyone at home.) Playing at home in
a 1:00 game against an abysmal West Coast Arizona Cardinals, the Vikings are
poised to take out a lot of their frustrations in blowout fashion. Aside from
Toby Gerhart and McNabb-if-you-have-a-better-option, it’s safe to play any
Viking on your roster; and even one that probably isn’t on your roster.
Obviously you’re playing Peterson or Harvin if you have
them, and I would highly recommend deploying the 5th ranked Vikings
rush defense in this one as well. At tight end, Shiancoe is starting to have
some of the value we expected him to have all along, and I think he’s a solid
bye week TE option if you have Witten, Dickson, or Davis/Cooley on your team.
Here’s the guy that probably isn’t on your roster, but
that I wouldn’t be afraid to add if you need an active body at WR: Michael
Jenkins. The Cardinals have one of the worst secondaries in the league, and
this falls under the theory of “the quarterback has to throw to someone.”
Jenkins has 16 receptions on 18 targets for 144 yards this season, each of
which is 2nd on the team to Harvin. He also has 2 receiving TD,
which is 2 more than Harvin or Berrian can claim. And speaking of Berrian, he
has 2 receptions on 16 targets. At some point, McNabb will stop throwing him
the ball and focus his efforts on someone who actually has hands, and I think
this is the week.
26. Kansas City
Chiefs (1-3) [@Ind]
Kansas City has shown some real spunk the past two weeks,
but I sincerely doubt it will translate into many more wins. Maybe they shock
me this week against the Colts, and maybe they win in weeks 9 and 10 at home
against the Dolphins and the Broncos, but beyond that, there isn’t another
winnable game on their schedule. They deserve a better fate than 4-12, but when
you draw one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL and then lose your
starting tight end, free safety, and running backs to torn ACLs before the
season really gets a chance to start, it’s hard to expect any better.
If there’s a silver lining to the Jamaal Charles injury,
it’s that Dexter McCluster has stepped onto the fantasy scene as somewhat of a
poor man’s Darren Sproles. He’s got some definite potential in PPR leagues, but
he’s never going to get a large enough percentage of the touches that you ever
totally feel comfortable starting him, due to the definite possibility that he
gets phased out of the game if he gets off to a poor start. He has yet to score
a touchdown, but frankly you can say that about the majority of the Chiefs
offense. If you’re debating between Mark Ingram, Devery Henderson, and Dexter
McCluster, I’d say you go with McCluster this week, but I wouldn’t say he’s a
must start by any means. The only must start Chief is Dwayne Bowe, and I
sincerely hope that aside from those 2 guys, you don’t have a single Chief on
your roster, let alone your starting line-up. Yeah, that’s right. I’m talking
to you, 83.4% of leagues that don’t have Thomas Jones on the waiver wire; those
2.8 yards per carry aren’t going to get any better.
25. Arizona
Cardinals (1-3) [@Min]
Thus far, the Cardinals have looked like a respectable
team, as they haven’t yet lost a game by more than 4 points. But I’m not buying
it. They’ve had lucky match-ups against two terrible quarterbacks and two
defensive lines that probably couldn’t keep a forty year old virgin from
scoring. Put them up against an average to above average D line and a just
below average quarterback and I think they’ll get pummeled.
It just so happens that they’re playing one of the better
defensive lines in the league and a quarterback whose demise has been slightly
overplayed. And it’s a 1:00 road game. They have virtually no chance of winning
this game, and even if it was a close affair, I don’t suspect Beanie Wells would
be finding a lot of daylight between the tackles. He’s rapidly deteriorating
into that injury prone guy who doesn’t do anything when you start him and who
blows up when you put him on your bench. After a stellar start against the
Giants, methinks he’ll disappoint the 90% of his owners that start him with
high hopes this week. Don’t get me wrong: I’m starting Wells in my one league
ahead of Tolbert and Benson (if he even plays), but I fully expect to regret
that decision.
As far as the passing game is concerned, the Vikings pass
D is significantly below average, so I’m expecting a monster game out of
Fitzgerald. I think Doucet has some definite potential if you’re hurting for
guys, and despite a losing effort, I say Kolb ends up being a better QB option
than guys like Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, Cutler, or Orton. Don’t play their
defense if you have them, and I wouldn’t play either tight end unless your next
best option is Zach Miller or Jeremy Shockey.
24. Denver Broncos
(1-3) [vs. SD]
I almost want to believe the Broncos could wind up as
that 7-9 team that finishes strong and makes everyone think they’re crafty by
picking them as their sleeper team the following season; AKA the Houston Texans
for the past 6 seasons. Prior to Aaron Rodgers just having an absolute field
day against them, Denver’s defense was looking much improved from last season,
and the Kyle Orton / Willis McGahee / Eric Decker trio of afterthoughts was
doing just enough to keep them in ball games against respectable opponents. It
just feels like they’re an X-Factor away from really competing, and no, I don’t
mean Tim Tebow.
It’s a shame they go up against one of the best teams in
the league this week. The Chargers have had arguably the best defense in the
NFL for the past 21 weeks of regular season action. Considering the Broncos
don’t exactly have anyone that anyone would consider a must start against an
average opponent, I wouldn’t condone starting any Broncos this week. I realize
that if you have Willis McGahee, it probably means you’re already hurting at
running back so you have no choice but to play him, but Marshawn Lynch is the
only “starting” running back that I would consider benching in favor of McGahee
if given the opportunity.
#23-#16: Misleading Records
Cincinnati,
Philadelphia, Carolina, Cleveland, Chicago, New York Giants, Washington,
Atlanta
Each of these teams is either better or worse than their
current record would indicate, but ultimately doesn’t look like a playoff
caliber team at the moment.
23. Cincinnati
Bengals (2-2) [@Jac]
The funny thing about the Bengals is that we all thought
they would be 0-4 at this point in the season, and as a result, none of us
actually believes they’re a .500 team. I would argue that the Bengals’ 2 wins
are more shocking than the Bills’ 3 wins or the Lions’ 4 wins. That being said,
they have what appears to be the easiest schedule in the NFL, and behind one of
the best defenses and likely rookie of the year AJ Green, it wouldn’t be a
complete surprise if they ended the season with an 8-8 record. But even if they
hang around .500 all season, I’ll never believe that they’re one of the 20 best
teams.
As far as the Bengals are concerned in Fantasy, you’re
playing AJ Green (every week from now on) if you have him, and Jermaine Gresham
is legitimately a top 12 TE option. I also think the Bengals defense is a
must-start against the lowest scoring team in the league, especially in a bye
week. There isn’t anyone else on the Bengals that I could stomach having in my
starting line-up this week.
Whether Benson is active or suspended, I wouldn’t want to
play a Bengals running back unless I had no other choice; the 3 worst options
this week are Lynch, McGahee, and Benson/Scott. The Jaguars have already shut
down the likes of Chris Johnson, Greene, Tomlinson, Ingram, Stewart, and
DeAngelo Williams, and I wouldn’t exactly say the Bengals rush attack is any
better than that of the Titans, Jets, Saints, or Panthers.
22. Philadelphia
Eagles (1-3) [@Buf]
I’ll spare you the trouble of reading more about the most
dissected team in recent history and jump straight to the fantasy suggestions.
The Bills have one of the worst rush defenses, but if you’re
not already playing McCoy on a regular basis, I’m a little impressed that you
made it this far into the article. However, I’m not touching Ronnie Brown with
a ten foot pole. After that little lateral trick he played last week, I’d be
surprised if Andy I Am The Walrus Reid even lets Brown set foot on the field
this week.
Despite being tied with the Packers for the most
interceptions, the Bills pass D isn’t any better than its rush D, so I would
definitely play Vick, Jackson, and Maclin. Considering most Bills games have
turned into shootouts, I would even think about starting the Eagles’ 3rd
most targeted receiver, which isn’t Brent Celek, Clay Harbor, or even Steve
Smith. Jason Avant has 10 receptions for 102 yards in the past two weeks, which
isn’t exactly amazing, but it’s better than any 49ers or Jets receiver has done
since the end of Week 2.
[Gambling Sidebar: I originally thought the Bills would
be favored in this game, you know, since they’re at home and have won
three times as many games as the Eagles. In retrospect, every time an NFC East
team plays in one of those “if they don’t win this game, they’ll start really
talking about firing the coach” games, they almost always win. I’m pretty sure
the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys are a combined 52-3 in those games in the past
decade. If this Dream Team were to fall to 1-4, all the blame would be placed on
Reid (even though it should be placed on Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo),
so it feels like one of those games they won’t lose for no other reason than because they can’t afford
to lose it. Long story short: stay away from this one at all costs.]
21. Carolina
Panthers (1-3) [vs. NO]
I never would have guessed that we’d be talking about the
Panthers as a team that’s substantially better than their record. If it weren’t
for a pair of punt return TDs by opponents, they could very well be a 3-1 team
that damn near knocked off the reigning Super Bowl Champions. And this is a
team that is just now starting to make some progress with a rush attack that
was supposed to be their strength. They probably won’t beat the Saints this
week, and looking at their schedule, they’ll be lucky to win 5 games this
season, but this is a Panthers team that can play with anyone. If I were going
to bet on either side of this 6.5 point line, I would absolutely be taking the Panthers.
The Saints have a fairly average defense in both the pass
and rush game, so even though they’re one of the best overall teams, your
fantasy guys shouldn’t have any real competitive advantage or disadvantage against
them. If you were ballsy enough to grab Newton or Steve Smith on draft day,
feel free to start them this week, and I would also feel safe in starting Olsen
against a defense that struggles with opposing tight ends, especially now that
Olsen has clearly surpassed Shockey on the TE depth chart.
I’d still be avoiding DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan
Stewart this week. Neither guy has found the end zone yet, and each is only
receiving about one third of the carries once you factor in Newton’s rushes. Somewhat
unbelievably, Jonathan Stewart has at least some value in PPR leagues, but
until one of them emerges as the feature back, or at least until one of them
scores a touchdown, I wouldn’t play either.
(Did you know Mike Goodson is owned in 2.1% of leagues?
WTF? How do you rationalize dedicating a roster spot to a running back with 0
rush attempts and 1 reception for 4 yards?)
20. Cleveland
Browns (2-2)
It’s probably for the best that they’re on a bye, because
they could be facing the worst defense in the league, and I still wouldn’t
recommend starting a single Cleveland Brown.
19. Chicago Bears
(2-2) [@Det]
If there was an award for MVP through the first four
weeks of the season, it would have to go to Matt Forte, right? I’ll give
honorable mentions to Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Darren McFadden, Wes Welker,
and Calvin Johnson, but the Bears would be 0-4 and possibly scoreless without
Matt Forte.
In writing this article, I made a spreadsheet with
various rankings and then a list for each team of all the “primary” offensive
guys, which was typically 1 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, and 1 other flex guy depending
on the team. Once I had those listed, I looked at who each team was playing
against and marked the solid options in green and the terrible options in red.
Detroit doesn’t even have an overwhelmingly good defense, and yet every single
Bear except for Forte is red.
Even with Forte’s 634 all-purpose yards (which puts him 1
yard behind Wes Welker for most in the NFL) the Bears offense still ranks 26th.
You can probably blame some of that on defensive touchdowns and good returns
from Hester, but this is just a bad offense. In the pre-season, I thought
Johnny Knox would have a breakout season because he’s always shown some promise
and he’s frankly the only downfield weapon the Bears have, but even their #1 WR
isn’t worth starting in fantasy leagues. Bench everyone except for Forte, and
don’t be shocked if even he gets shut down by the Lions front seven. It’s nice
that I get to bet on the Lions -5.5, but I wish I could bet on which quarter
Jay Cutler gets knocked out of this game, because I’d put a good chunk of
change on the 3rd.
18. New York
Giants (3-1) [vs. Sea]
I refuse to believe that this team is any good. I watched
their first 3 games of the season in their entirety (missed the 4th
because I was in the casino for the 4:00 games this past Sunday), and there’s
no way they should have won any of those games; let alone two of them. I feel
like every single Eli TD has come on completely blown coverage or a circus
catch. Bradshaw and Jacobs are combining for all of 87 rushing yards per game.
Their defense just got shredded by a running back who wasn’t even expected to
play until half an hour before the game started. Can you even name their
starting tight end? Seriously, if you’re not from New Jersey and you can tell
me who their tight end is without looking it up, I’ll send you $20. Aside from
dumb luck against a cream puff schedule, what redeeming factor does this team
have so far?
Lo and behold, the G-Men face another horrendous team
this weekend when the Seahawks come to town. I’m not even a sympathizer for any
team in the NFC East, but it annoys me to no end that this is going to be a 4-1
team by this time next week. Go ahead and start any Giants you have against
Seattle, and you might as well bet them to cover the 10 point spread while you’re
at it, because there’s no way the Seahawks score 2 TD in this game.
17. Washington
Redskins (3-1)
Speaking of 3-1 teams I don’t believe in. At least this
one is on a bye, so I don’t have to even pretend to know what the hell Shanahan
is up to with their running back situation.
16. Atlanta
Falcons (2-2) [vs. GB]
The Falcons are secretly pretty bad, and I think the
whole world is going to find that out this Sunday night. We were willing to
forget their opening week disaster against the Bears when they came back to
beat a vastly overrated Eagles team on national television. They played
admirably but poorly against the Buccaneers in Week 3, and they just barely
kept the Seahawks from scoring 31 points last week. The defense is terrible,
Matt Ryan is taking way too many sacks, and call me crazy, but Michael Turner
doesn’t seem quite right. They’re a slightly above average team with some great
receiving options, but they don’t seem to have what it takes to make the
playoffs this season.
As far as Week 5 is concerned, the Packers allow more
passing yards than any team not located in New England, so I’m feeling pretty
good about playing White, Jones, and Gonzalez. I would even promote Matt Ryan
as a top 10 fantasy QB this week.
I would be wary about using Michael Turner this week
though. The Packers don’t allow many rushing yards (probably a product of
opponents primarily playing from behind), have only allowed one rushing TD this
season, and Turner has barely even been a factor in the Falcons pass game
(fewer targets than Snelling and Rodgers). There aren’t many scenarios in which
you have the luxury of choosing to bench Turner, but if you did, I would.
Also, please, for the love of all that is holy, do not
start the Falcons defense this week against Aaron Rodgers.
To Be Continued...
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